Social forecasting: a literature review of research promoted by the United States national security system to model human behavior

Abstract

The development of new information and communication technologies increased the volume of information flows within society. For the security forces, this phenomenon presents new opportunities for collecting, processing and analyzing information linked with the opportunity to collect a vast and diverse amount data, and at the same time it requires new organizational and individual competences to deal with the new forms and huge volumes of information. Our study aimed to outline the research areas funded by the US defense and intelligence agencies with respect to social forecasting. Based on bibliometric techniques, we clustered 2688 articles funded by US defense or intelligen-ce agencies in five research areas: a) Complex networks, b) Social networks, c) Human reasoning, d) Optimization algorithms, and e) Neuroscience. After that, we analyzed qualitatively the most cited papers in each area. Our analysis identified that the research areas are compatible with the US intelligence doctrine. Besides that, we considered that the research areas could be incorporated in the work of security forces provided that basic training be offered. The basic training would not only enhance capabilities of law enforcement agencies but also help safeguard against (unwitting) biases and mistakes in the analysis of data.